The initial match of Chelsea's Conference League semi-final against Djurgarden unfolded as predicted last week, with the high-spending Blues easily defeating the Swedish team to establish a commanding 4-1 lead.
Enzo Maresca's team is edging closer to achieving a historic milestone of being the first club to win all three UEFA competitions. With a significant advantage secured, they might choose to ease off in the upcoming second leg at Stamford Bridge.
Team updates
Christopher Nkunku, who is anticipated to depart from Chelsea in the upcoming season, is sidelined along with Marc Guiu and Wesley Fofana.
In the previous game, players like Noni Madueke, Reece James, and Enzo Fernandez featured. However, with Chelsea engaged in a fierce battle for Champions League qualification and a crucial match against top-five contender Newcastle approaching in the Premier League, Maresca could opt for extensive squad rotation this time around.
Djurgarden continues to grapple with an injury crisis, with Patric Aslund, Oskar Fallenius, Nino Zugelj, Rasmus Schuller, and Piotr Johansson being the latest additions to the extensive absentee list.
As there are no returning players, the away team may once again have a depleted bench, just like in the previous encounter.
Match statistics
Chelsea has emerged victorious in 10 out of their 11 Conference League matches.
Djurgarden has suffered defeats in three of their last five European fixtures.
Only three out of Chelsea's previous 13 games have witnessed more than 3.5 goals.
The visiting team has managed to score merely three goals in their last six league matches.
In Djurgarden's 11 Conference League games, over 3.5 goals have occurred in just three instances.
Out of Chelsea's last seven games at Stamford Bridge, four have ended with only one goal being scored.
Forecast
With a comfortable 4-1 lead from the first leg, Chelsea has already completed the hard work and could approach the second leg at Stamford Bridge more relaxed, with focus on their crucial upcoming game against Newcastle.
Maresca is likely to shuffle his squad, reducing the number of key players starting this week compared to the previous match. Consequently, Chelsea might not exhibit the same attacking efficiency.
Even with their key players on the field, Chelsea isn't known for high-scoring games. Considering that only three of their last 13 matches have exceeded 3.5 goals, betting on the under could be enticing for the second leg.
Although Djurgarden needs to go on the offensive, their recent goal-scoring record of just three goals in their last six Allsvenskan matches raises doubts about their ability to capitalize on attacking opportunities in London.
Over 3.5 goals have been prevalent in only three of Djurgarden's 11 Conference League games. Given the visitors' struggles in front of goal and Chelsea's contentment with the aggregate lead, opting for the under once again might be a wise choice.