The teams in third and second place in Group B at the 2024 Copa America will face off in their final group match, with the victor securing a spot in the knockout rounds.
Venezuela has secured advancement with two wins out of two, while Jamaica is eliminated, setting the stage for a showdown between these two sides to claim the second spot. Ecuador holds the advantage on goal difference, making this a crucial game for Mexico.
Team update
A key absence to watch out for is Edson Alvarez from West Ham, who missed Mexico's previous match. He sustained a hamstring injury in their first game and his potential absence will be significant.
Ecuador is expected to have a full squad without injury concerns for this match.
Moises Caicedo from Chelsea received the man of the match award in Ecuador's victory over Jamaica, with Kendry Paez, a future teammate, also scoring. The highly-rated Ecuador team is likely to field an unchanged lineup.
Match statistics
Ecuador has gone 11 Copa America games without keeping a clean sheet.
Three of the past four encounters between these two sides have seen both teams scoring.
Mexico has conceded in 10 of their last 14 matches.
Mexico had 18 shots in their recent 1-0 loss to Venezuela.
Ecuador allowed four shots on target from bottom-placed Jamaica in their previous game.
Mexico has registered 14 shots on target in the two games they have played in this tournament.
Forecast
Mexico's first two matches in the Copa America ended in a 1-0 victory and a 1-0 defeat, putting them at a disadvantage in the battle for the second spot.
Ecuador's 3-1 win over Jamaica has placed them in a favorable position for the next stage, as they only require a draw in this upcoming clash in Arizona.
Although Mexico's initial matches were low-scoring, they have shown attacking intent. With 14 shots on target in those two games — despite failing to score from 18 attempts against Venezuela — El Tri have clearly had their opportunities.
They will face an Ecuador side making strides in international football. Moises Caicedo leads their midfield, while rising star Kendry Paez is part of a promising generation of players.
While Ecuador has excelled in attack, they have struggled defensively, failing to keep a clean sheet in their last six matches. Additionally, their record at this tournament is poor, with 11 consecutive games without a shutout.
Mexico is poised to capitalize, especially as Ecuador allowed chances to Jamaica, the bottom team. However, Mexico's need to push forward could leave them vulnerable, having kept only four clean sheets in their last 14 matches.
Overall, both defenses seem shaky. Ecuador cannot sit back and rely on defense, while Mexico is likely to create chances due to their urgency for a victory.
Given Mexico's recent struggles in defense, expect goals from both sides.